Uno, dos, one, two, tres, quattro…

Well fancy that! Project Fear failed.

*Indeed they are, Clicky. But ‘bow‘ is one of those homo-thingies – you’re mixing up the meaning and pronunciation…*

*Okkaay… /puffs out cheeks …shall I get on with it, Clicky?*

*Thank you. A bit creepy, but thank you.*

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In the summer of 2012, I read a book called ‘The Fourth Turning‘ and it changed the way I looked at, not only history, but the current state of world affairs.

It was published in 1997 and, in it, a couple of Yanks postulate that human history is a series of cycles, roughly lasting 80 – 100 years. Each cycle (saeculum) can be broken up into four distinct seasons (Turnings): Spring (High), Summer (Awakening), Autumn (Unraveling) and Winter (Crisis), and the cycle is powered along by four generational archetypes moving through the life stages of childhood, young adulthood, mid-life and elderhood.

The authors had looked back at Anglo-American history and had identified 7 cycles:

Late Medieval (1435 – 1487)

Reformation (1487 – 1594)

New World (1594 – 1704)

Revolutionary (1704 – 1794)

Civil War (1794 – 1865)

Great Power (1865 – 1946)

Millennial (1946 – 2026?)

1997, the time of publishing, fell within the Autumn (Unraveling) season of the Millennial Cycle. The next turning would be the fourth (Winter/Crisis) of the saeculum and the authors predicted:

Sometime around the year 2005, perhaps a few years before or after, America will enter the Fourth Turning.

By the time I read the book in 2012, the Fourth Turning was already underway.

A Crisis year begins with a catalyst – a startling event (or sequence of events) that produces a sudden shift in mood.

Two incidents, either side of 2005, could be considered catalysts – the 2001 terrorist attack on the World Trade Centre…

and the Financial Crash in 2008…

*/squints… Clicky, is there a reason you’re using anti-tobacco imagery to illustrate my points?*

*Ah… /nods sagely …and it also reminds me to mention the Fourth Turning’s ‘Gray Champion‘*

Anyhoo, back to the book. It’s very US-centric but that, I suppose, was it’s target audience. However, yesterday I was interested to read mention of it in regards to Brexit at The Burning Platform, via Zero Hedge.

And the stormy weather featured in Blue Universe Frank’s Brexit post today…

And he specifically mentions the Spanish Armada – The Armada Crisis is the Fourth Turning (Crisis) season of the Reformation saeculum:

This won’t have been the first time Britain has been saved by a storm. On the 4th of August 1588, the Spanish Armada, which was about to land an army on England’s south coast, began to experience an adverse wind (much like yesterday’s storm wind) that blew it east along the coast, all the way to Calais, and then all the way round Britain and back to Spain.

*No and a bit rude, my fair Clicky. The Armada Crisis was a strictly Anglo Fourth Turning*

The Armada Crisis (Fourth Turning, 1569–1594) began when the powerful Duke of Norfolk was linked to a Spanish plot against the English throne, a discovery which galvanized newly-Protestant England against the global threat of the Catholic Hapsburgs. A crescendo of surrogate wars and privateering culminated in England’s miraculous victory over the Spanish Armada invasion (in 1588). The mood of emergency relaxed after the successful resistance of Holland and the breaking of Spanish control over France.

Interestingly Frank also posted a video of US Presidential nominee, Donald Trump, talking about Brexit on his arrival at Turnberry golf course yesterday. I dunno, he does look rather more gray than orange 😉

*******

*/Yawn and stretch… That’s enough for now, Clicky. Time for a Song?*